The nation seems recession bound and the stock market is withering, but real estate leaders are pretty chipper about the industry’s prospects for this year and beyond.

“The Atlantic City area and our entiremarket down here are extremely promising as we head into the next wave of megaresorts,” said Drew Fishman, president of the N.J. Association of Realtors and broker/sales associate with ReMax Atlantic in Northfield.

Real estate professionals insisted throughout 2007 that the home resale market in southern New Jersey, while clearly fallen from the incredible heights experienced during the realty bubble that burst in 2006, had merely declined to pretty good. They were unanimous in suggesting that the media were conveying a bleakness that didn’t exist on residential streets.

Now, with economic forecasts still pointing down, Realtors are saying the worst is over.

“I think we’re going to see sideways movement this year, with a decent spring season,” said Ian Lazarus, president of the Cape May County Association of Realtors. “The buyers are definitely out and we’re starting to make some sales.”

Fishman said this region, the state as a whole and even the Northeast “remained healthy over the last couple of years. It was not 2005, but it still was pretty good.”

Now, he said, mortgage interest rates are low — 5.7 percent with no points — and there’s good inventory available of all types of homes. “This is the time when you’re going to be able to do stuff,” Fishman said. “Real estate is cyclical, and everything looks promising.”

That optimism stands in contrast to reports such as the quarterly economic outlook released last week by Richard Stockton College.

It said that figures “suggest that Atlantic City’s housing market may not have yet reached bottom.”

The Stockton report relied heavily on the Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index of mortgage giant Freddie Mac, tracking smaller price appreciation last year in Atlantic City and Cumberland County, and even an outright drop in prices in Ocean City.

A 20 percent decline in building permits in Atlantic County from the prior year and an 8.6 percent drop in construction employment also weighed heavily on the Stockton outlook.

Stockton’s figures, however, only cover through the second quarter of 2007, so it’s possible that the housing market looks better now.

Lazarus, who is also president of the Landis Co. in Sea Isle City, sees significant market activity in the Wildwoods and Sea Isle City, while other shore towns — Cape May, Avalon, Stone Harbor and Ocean City — are still “kind of slow.”

“Who knows if we’re at the bottom or not at the bottom? You’re never going to catch the top or bottom exactly,” he said. “If you’re in it for the next five yeas, you’ll still be happy owning property at the shore.”

Wherever the market is going next, he said, he’s certain that the bulk of the price depreciation has already happened.

“We’re not in a bubble now. That $400,000 price is not going to become $300,000. The air’s already seeped out, and we’re closer to the bottom than the top,” he said.

Fishman said New Jersey’s sales pace for 2007 will come in comparable to that of 2002 — a solid year with about 5.7 million homes sold. And in 2007, homes were priced higher than in 2002, so the market actually was more rewarding for real estate professionals (and sellers).

While it’s true that sales are down from the 6.4 million sold in 2005, “that was one of the top years of all time,” he said.

Realtors who have been in the business through two or three market cycles know that a peak can’t last.

One such broker, Amy Sullivan, with ReMax Atlantic in Northfield, said the current alignment of the three critical factors in real estate make this the most favorable conditions she’s seen in her 21 years in the business.

“Interest rates are near an all-time low, inventory is at an all-time high, and prices have come down since 2005,” Sullivan said. “We usually have one or two of those conditions, but not all three things at once.”

November and December were slow, she said, but January is getting busy.

“I’ve got lots of appointments this month, so I’m optimistic about the spring,” she said.



To e-mail Kevin Post at The Press:

KPost@pressofac.com

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